Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE -400 UL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -6.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -7.1 (+4.9) | 148.1 (-8.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -7.0 (+5.0) | 144.6 (-4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -7.1 (+4.9) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.0 (+4.0) | 150.0 (-10.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#95) | 4.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#28) | 2.89 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#28) | 3.69 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#49) | 0.714 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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