Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -333 WCU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (-37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -6.0 (+6.0) | 161.5 (-27.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.5 (+6.5) | 156.9 (-22.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.0 (+7.0) | 156.3 (-22.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.8 (+7.2) | 160.4 (-26.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | WCU 80 – 73 UNCA |
| Dec 14, 2024 | UNCA 78 – 61 WCU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | WCU 78 – 63 UNCA |
| Dec 11, 2021 | UNCA 73 – 72 WCU |
| Nov 28, 2020 | WCU 83 – 81 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#150) | 1.0 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#165) | 0.67 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#160) | 0.02 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#137) | 0.572 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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