Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | WCU +105 UNCA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -0.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.1 (+7.1) | 145.1 (+7.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -1.8 (+8.8) | 142.6 (+10.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -1.5 (+5.5) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -1.1 (+5.9) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UNCA 78 – 61 WCU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | WCU 78 – 63 UNCA |
| Nov 26, 2022 | UNCA 73 – 61 WCU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | UNCA 73 – 72 WCU |
| Nov 28, 2020 | WCU 83 – 81 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#315) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#181) | -0.66 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#170) | -1.05 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#129) | 0.351 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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