Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 159.0 Over |
| Money | UNCA +145 WCU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -4.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -8.3 (+6.3) | 144.6 (+19.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -7.2 (+5.2) | 149.4 (+14.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -7.3 (+5.3) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | WCU 80 – 73 UNCA |
| Dec 14, 2024 | UNCA 78 – 61 WCU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | WCU 78 – 63 UNCA |
| Nov 26, 2022 | UNCA 73 – 61 WCU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | UNCA 73 – 72 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 4-13 |
| Home | 6-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#189) | 8.1 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#194) | 0.85 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.63 (#193) | 1.72 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#91) | 0.750 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 17.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 11.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 82.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 48.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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