Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USD -120 NMSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +13 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -2.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -1.6 (-14.6) | 142.5 (+24.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -1.6 (-14.6) | 144.6 (+22.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.1 (-12.9) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-9 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#151) | 3.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#98) | -0.17 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#74) | -0.05 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#70) | 0.544 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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