Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WIU +230 YSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +24 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -4.4 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -3.5 (-20.5) | 148.5 (+3.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -6.1 (-17.9) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -2.3 (-21.7) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -2.9 (-21.1) | 149.8 (+2.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#276) | 5.9 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#187) | 1.03 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#216) | 1.22 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#238) | 0.567 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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