Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -275 NICH +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -17.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -14.0 (+13.0) | 145.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -13.3 (+13.7) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -12.7 (+14.3) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -15.5 (+11.5) | 141.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#45) | -8.8 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#69) | -1.80 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#58) | -2.87 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#33) | 0.404 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 12.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 58.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 42.4% |
Game Analysis
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