Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -210 UTU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -4.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -3.1 (-9.1) | 151.7 (-25.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -3.9 (-9.9) | 149.3 (-23.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -2.8 (-8.8) | 152.1 (-26.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -2.7 (-8.7) | 150.2 (-24.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#158) | -3.4 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#50) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#65) | -2.21 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#42) | 0.469 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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