Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -900 W&M +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -4.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -4.4 (+11.6) | 136.2 (+7.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -7.1 (+8.9) | 135.3 (+8.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -4.1 (+11.9) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.1 (+11.9) | 137.4 (+6.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#263) | -2.1 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#264) | -0.78 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#240) | -1.58 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#265) | 0.453 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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