Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -163 HOW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +1 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -11.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -7.6 (-8.6) | 136.7 (-25.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.3 (-6.3) | 133.6 (-22.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -7.7 (-8.7) | 140.7 (-29.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -8.8 (-9.8) | 139.4 (-28.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2021 | APSU 69 – 67 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#269) | -10.0 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#170) | -1.80 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#200) | -2.64 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#122) | 0.371 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 62.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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