Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -8.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.8 (-6.8) | 150.5 (-14.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -4.6 (-6.6) | 142.7 (-6.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -5.5 (-7.5) | 152.4 (-16.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -6.0 (-8.0) | 153.1 (-17.1) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | HOW 56 – 55 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#159) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#227) | 0.46 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#252) | 0.58 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#317) | 0.407 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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