Betting Lines
| Spread | RMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +110 RMU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -0.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -0.5 (+0.5) | 129.5 (-22.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -0.3 (+0.7) | 128.9 (-21.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -0.6 (+0.4) | 130.4 (-23.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -0.4 (+0.6) | 130.4 (-23.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#272) | -6.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#306) | -1.38 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#299) | -2.04 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#308) | 0.407 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 37.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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