Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -5000 MVSU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +43 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -23.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.5 (+23.5) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -21.8 (+21.2) | 131.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.6 (+26.4) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -18.7 (+24.3) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-7 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#98) | -12.5 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#117) | -1.74 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#130) | -2.68 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#93) | 0.457 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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