Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -3300 HAMP +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +27 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -17.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -14.2 (+12.8) | 151.0 (+16.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -17.6 (+9.4) | 158.1 (+8.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -15.2 (+11.8) | 153.9 (+13.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -15.8 (+11.2) | 151.5 (+15.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#109) | -6.8 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#109) | -2.32 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#103) | -3.19 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#107) | 0.374 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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