Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | WKU -4000 SCST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +26 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -19.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -15.1 (+10.9) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -15.3 (+10.7) | 146.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -13.1 (+12.9) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -14.5 (+11.5) | 146.5 (+7.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 84.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#186) | -13.0 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#74) | -2.08 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#110) | -3.05 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#80) | 0.365 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.1% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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