Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -150 USA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | USA -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.0 (+0.0) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.4 (-0.4) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.2 (+0.8) | 133.3 (-11.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.5 (+0.5) | 132.2 (-10.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#83) | 5.5 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#14) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#19) | 0.08 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#73) | 0.540 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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