Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -600 NIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -8.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.8 (+1.2) | 137.4 (+21.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -6.5 (+0.5) | 138.2 (+20.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -4.9 (+2.1) | 138.8 (+20.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.0 (+2.0) | 138.7 (+20.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UNI 70 – 57 NIU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | UNI 101 – 57 NIU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UNI 76 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#216) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#319) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#293) | 0.03 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#315) | 0.478 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 18.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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