Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -2500 NIU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +44 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -20.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -18.8 (+25.2) | 138.6 (+19.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -16.6 (+27.4) | 138.7 (+19.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -16.9 (+27.1) | 138.6 (+19.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -18.5 (+25.5) | 138.8 (+19.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | UNI 70 – 57 NIU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UNI 76 – 63 NIU |
| Nov 26, 2022 | UNI 83 – 76 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#113) | -12.3 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#112) | -2.20 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#98) | -2.88 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#76) | 0.365 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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