Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -110 CONN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -1.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.6 (-16.6) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.1 (-16.1) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.1 (-16.1) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.6 (-16.6) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 7, 2024 | CONN 86 – 72 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#2) | 18.2 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#20) | 2.35 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.78 (#17) | 4.29 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#25) | 0.610 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 52.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 17.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.7% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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