Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -600 ALA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.5 (+6.5) | 159.5 (-1.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.1 (+7.9) | 161.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.0 (+6.0) | 157.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.3 (+8.7) | 160.0 (-2.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | CONN 82 – 67 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#1) | 18.5 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#1) | 2.65 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.83 (#2) | 3.20 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#3) | 0.628 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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