All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
(1) UConn Huskies
86 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
State Farm Stadium (Neutral) · April 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CONN -10.5 Home covered
O/U 160.5 Under
Money CONN -600 / ALA +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total CONN win
Actual CONN +14 158 Won
Massey CONN -5.2 (+8.8)
Massey Totals 164.1 (-6.1)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML CONN -9.7 (+4.3) 159.3 (-1.3) 81%
Model 4 ML CONN -8.7 (+5.3) 160.6 (-2.6) 79%
Model 3 ML CONN -9.8 (+4.2) 158.1 (-0.1) 77%
Baseline ML CONN -8.5 (+5.5) 159.5 (-1.5) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2022 CONN 8267 ALA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CONN ALA
Overall 37-3 25-12
Conference 18-2 13-5
Home 17-0 14-2
Away 8-3 5-5
Neutral 12-0 6-5
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak W13 L1
Avg Pts For 81.4 90.1
Avg Pts Against 63.4 81.2
Massey 23.7 (#1) 18.5 (#9)
Bradley-Terry 4.10 (#1) 2.65 (#10)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.83 (#2) 3.20 (#13)
RPI 0.640 (#3) 0.628 (#4)
Shooting & Four Factors CONN ALA
FG% 49.8% 47.7%
3PT% 35.8% 37.1%
REB / G 39.0 39.9
OREB / G 11.7 12.9
AST / TO 1.91 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.0% 56.3%
TOV% 14.7% 16.0%
ORB% 36.6% 35.2%
FT Rate 24.0% 27.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.1% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 15.4%
DRB% 73.3% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 28.8%

Game Analysis

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