Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -4000 COLU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -18.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -18.8 (-4.8) | 146.3 (-4.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -13.8 (+0.2) | 147.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -15.3 (-1.3) | 148.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -16.8 (-2.8) | 146.5 (-4.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | PROV 78 – 59 COLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#173) | -10.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | -2.25 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#191) | -4.04 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#227) | 0.375 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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