Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -1200 CAL +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +11 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -3.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.3 (+5.7) | 134.3 (-27.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -6.3 (+4.7) | 131.9 (-24.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -3.7 (+7.3) | 133.0 (-26.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -3.9 (+7.1) | 132.2 (-25.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-14 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#222) | -5.9 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#285) | -2.84 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#284) | -3.67 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#333) | 0.372 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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