Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -5000 HCU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +36 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -31.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -29.7 (+6.3) | 154.8 (+19.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -24.3 (+11.7) | 155.6 (+18.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -23.8 (+12.2) | 154.9 (+19.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -29.9 (+6.1) | 156.8 (+17.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 85.0 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#51) | -15.5 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#55) | -4.16 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#67) | -6.51 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#100) | 0.300 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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