Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -800 JXST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -18.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -17.6 (+0.4) | 150.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -11.8 (+6.2) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -15.2 (+2.8) | 150.8 (-10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -17.0 (+1.0) | 150.7 (-10.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#48) | -3.0 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#44) | -1.29 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#48) | -2.48 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#79) | 0.444 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.04 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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