Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HOF +100 MTSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +10 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -4.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.1 (-9.9) | 139.8 (-21.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -0.7 (-10.7) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -2.9 (-12.9) | 142.8 (-24.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -2.4 (-12.4) | 143.5 (-25.5) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 11-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#108) | -1.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#24) | -1.02 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#47) | -1.61 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.740 (#2) | 0.336 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 85.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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