Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -163 PV +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -2.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.6 (-9.6) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.1 (-11.1) | 129.3 (-3.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.8 (-10.8) | 136.7 (-10.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.9 (-10.9) | 137.2 (-11.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#182) | 4.8 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#176) | -0.37 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#170) | 0.40 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#190) | 0.408 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 48.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.