Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -600 UMBC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -15.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -11.4 (-2.4) | 151.6 (-2.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -10.8 (-1.8) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -11.5 (-2.5) | 154.7 (-5.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -12.1 (-3.1) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | GTWN 90 – 81 UMBC |
| Dec 2, 2024 | GTWN 86 – 62 UMBC |
| Dec 9, 2021 | GTWN 100 – 71 UMBC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | GTWN 70 – 62 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-8 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#225) | -10.3 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#226) | -1.65 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#205) | -2.90 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#215) | 0.378 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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