Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +29 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.9 (+29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.1 (+29.1) | 153.0 (+18.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.2 (+27.8) | 153.1 (+17.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.2 (+29.2) | 151.5 (+19.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -0.1 (+28.9) | 151.3 (+19.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | GTWN 90 – 81 UMBC |
| Dec 2, 2024 | GTWN 86 – 62 UMBC |
| Nov 26, 2022 | GTWN 79 – 70 UMBC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | GTWN 70 – 62 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L21 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#242) | 2.0 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#260) | 0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#256) | -0.17 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#296) | 0.491 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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