Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -4000 UMBC +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -15.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -13.4 (-4.4) | 143.1 (+27.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GTWN -15.2 (-6.2) | 140.7 (+30.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GTWN -11.5 (-2.5) | 140.7 (+30.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -11.9 (-2.9) | 141.2 (+29.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2024 | GTWN 86 – 62 UMBC |
| Nov 26, 2022 | GTWN 79 – 70 UMBC |
| Dec 9, 2021 | GTWN 100 – 71 UMBC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | GTWN 70 – 62 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#120) | -6.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#74) | 0.19 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#77) | -0.21 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#122) | 0.457 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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