Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -2500 UMBC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -16.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -16.1 (+7.9) | 147.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -14.8 (+9.2) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -15.4 (+8.6) | 148.1 (-0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -15.4 (+8.6) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | GTWN 90 – 81 UMBC |
| Nov 26, 2022 | GTWN 79 – 70 UMBC |
| Dec 9, 2021 | GTWN 100 – 71 UMBC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | GTWN 70 – 62 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#111) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#108) | -2.65 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#133) | -3.45 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#110) | 0.332 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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