Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -800 MRMK +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +42 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -12.7 (+29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -10.0 (+32.0) | 131.7 (-7.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -11.8 (+30.2) | 133.7 (-9.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -9.3 (+32.7) | 134.3 (-10.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -10.2 (+31.8) | 133.4 (-9.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#214) | -7.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#186) | -1.82 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#173) | -2.61 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#146) | 0.417 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 55.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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