Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -175 GRAM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +20 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -14.6 (-34.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -9.7 (-29.7) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -7.4 (-27.4) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -9.4 (-29.4) | 137.6 (-7.6) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -10.3 (-30.3) | 137.5 (-7.5) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-10 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#181) | -7.5 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#106) | 0.50 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#98) | 1.12 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#108) | 0.535 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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