Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GT -1200 UNA +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GT -13.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -9.9 (+9.1) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -11.0 (+8.0) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -9.2 (+9.8) | 141.1 (-0.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -10.2 (+8.8) | 140.1 (+0.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#162) | -5.0 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#153) | -0.87 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#121) | -2.14 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#124) | 0.369 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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