Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MILW +180 UCD -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -3.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -6.4 (+8.4) | 148.9 (+23.1) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -3.2 (+5.2) | 144.9 (+27.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.6 (+6.6) | 146.8 (+25.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.9 (+7.9) | 146.3 (+25.7) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | MILW 81 – 79 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#244) | 6.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#310) | 1.96 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#314) | 2.84 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#111) | 0.583 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 30.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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