Betting Lines
| Spread | EIU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | EIU +110 ALST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | EIU -9.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EIU -1.8 (-10.8) | 134.5 (-9.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EIU -3.7 (-12.7) | 133.1 (-8.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EIU -3.6 (-12.6) | 129.1 (-4.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EIU -3.0 (-12.0) | 128.0 (-3.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EIU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#295) | -16.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.74 (#357) | -1.90 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.10 (#362) | -2.70 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.323 (#351) | 0.398 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EIU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.4% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.4% | 37.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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