Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO +200 BU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | BU -0.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -2.6 (+13.6) | 137.8 (-22.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -2.9 (+13.9) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.3 (+12.3) | 137.9 (-22.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -1.2 (+12.2) | 139.1 (-24.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#143) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#115) | 1.95 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#142) | 3.52 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#218) | 0.538 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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