Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +130 L-MD -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -5.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -3.1 (+2.1) | 136.2 (-7.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -3.1 (+2.1) | 132.8 (-3.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -4.0 (+3.0) | 134.9 (-5.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -4.0 (+3.0) | 134.8 (-5.8) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#357) | -10.5 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#349) | -1.63 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.98 (#354) | -2.49 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#344) | 0.406 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.2% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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