Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -2000 KENT +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +5 | 93 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -14.5 (-9.5) | 130.5 (-37.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.6 (-9.6) | 128.8 (-35.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -14.2 (-9.2) | 132.3 (-39.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.8 (-8.8) | 130.0 (-37.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 11-0 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#1) | 11.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#30) | 1.64 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#26) | 2.77 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#67) | 0.571 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.2% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 27.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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