Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -8000 LIN +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +33 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -28.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -26.4 (+6.6) | 153.5 (-2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -22.8 (+10.2) | 153.9 (-2.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -23.2 (+9.8) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -26.8 (+6.2) | 151.6 (-0.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#10) | -4.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#51) | -1.46 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#35) | -2.12 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#104) | 0.389 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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