Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -2500 LAF +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -21.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -15.1 (-2.1) | 133.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -18.0 (-5.0) | 129.0 (-2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -16.3 (-3.3) | 129.6 (-2.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -16.1 (-3.1) | 131.6 (-4.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#47) | -5.1 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#60) | -2.17 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#70) | -3.29 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#36) | 0.385 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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