Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +150 COLG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -3.8 (+8.2) | 148.8 (+1.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -2.1 (+9.9) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -3.9 (+8.1) | 150.3 (-0.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -3.6 (+8.4) | 151.1 (-1.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#199) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#112) | -0.33 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#105) | 0.04 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.434 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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