I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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55–26 on winners spread MAE 9.9 81 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Clemson -12.5 153.2 14% 74–71 ✓
Nicholls @ UC Irvine +15.5 141.2 86% 56–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico +17.0 150.7 86% 61–79 ✓
Lafayette @ Penn State +16.1 131.6 84% 57–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Pittsburgh +4.1 137.4 63% 64–80 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Hofstra +2.4 143.5 59% 64–54 ✗
Tennessee @ Kansas -2.9 135.0 37% 64–50 ✓
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State +7.5 149.1 76% 56–82 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas State +2.9 137.2 58% 67–59 ✗
Oklahoma @ Seton Hall +2.2 127.0 66% 77–64 ✗
Long Beach State @ Oakland -15.1 153.2 15% 78–70 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Virginia Tech +19.3 149.4 89% 64–69 ✓
Sacramento State @ Hawai'i -0.3 132.3 52% 61–74 ✗
Grambling @ UTSA +10.3 137.5 83% 75–55 ✗
Lindenwood @ Illinois +26.8 151.6 90% 59–92 ✓
Robert Morris @ Mercer +2.6 141.4 70% 66–72 ✓
Idaho @ Pacific +12.9 150.7 72% 84–81 ✗
West Virginia @ Portland State -6.5 153.1 25% 89–71 ✓
UConn @ Alabama +1.6 145.1 53% 82–67 ✗
New Mexico State @ San Diego +1.6 142.5 49% 90–77 ✗
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota State +1.8 148.4 60% 80–70 ✗
Butler @ NC State +0.2 145.9 54% 61–76 ✓
California @ TCU +3.9 132.2 74% 48–59 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Utah +0.8 141.6 50% 78–65 ✗
Purdue @ Gonzaga +0.8 145.2 50% 84–66 ✗
Oregon @ Michigan State +2.4 137.0 59% 70–74 ✓
Army @ Manhattan -0.2 144.6 50% 71–72 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Navy +8.0 142.1 78% 59–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ UL Monroe -4.0 134.8 25% 65–64 ✓
James Madison @ South Dakota State -13.5 150.6 15% 79–60 ✓
Cleveland State @ Western Michigan +0.4 137.6 53% 71–49 ✗
Northeastern @ Princeton +11.6 140.4 82% 54–56 ✓
Missouri State @ Ball State -1.3 137.5 45% 64–67 ✗
UMBC @ Georgetown +12.1 153.0 85% 70–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ Missouri +29.9 156.8 91% 69–105 ✓
Hampton @ Wake Forest +15.8 151.5 87% 70–97 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAlbany -6.6 143.3 28% 73–56 ✓
Little Rock @ Miami (OH) +1.4 157.0 57% 67–80 ✓
Southern @ Omaha -8.0 139.5 25% 78–88 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +5.0 138.7 71% 76–83 ✓
Marist @ Bucknell +11.5 136.6 83% 60–54 ✗
Boston University @ Southeast Missouri State -1.2 139.1 44% 52–63 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Hofstra +2.4 143.8 60% 53–65 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Asheville +4.8 160.4 73% 61–73 ✓
South Dakota @ Coastal Carolina +1.9 144.1 53% 59–66 ✓
Utah Tech @ Cal State Fullerton +2.7 150.2 59% 66–60 ✗
Alabama State @ Eastern Illinois +3.0 128.0 69% 67–58 ✗
Binghamton @ La Salle +8.8 140.4 76% 62–65 ✓
New Hampshire @ George Washington +4.4 143.7 72% 54–75 ✓
Queens University @ George Mason +2.6 143.7 60% 65–72 ✓
Niagara @ St. John's +12.8 136.7 82% 70–78 ✓
Hartford @ Delaware +10.9 144.3 83% 50–78 ✓
Kent State @ Houston +13.8 130.0 85% 44–49 ✓
South Alabama @ Towson +1.5 132.2 56% 60–62 ✓
Oakland @ San José State +9.5 146.8 83% 67–80 ✓
Youngstown State @ Western Illinois -2.9 149.8 42% 88–64 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Rutgers +25.9 131.4 90% 49–83 ✓
Howard @ Austin Peay +8.8 139.4 71% 56–55 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central +2.9 140.0 63% 53–58 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas +30.6 146.0 91% 54–91 ✓
Tarleton State @ Wichita State +4.8 131.3 69% 71–83 ✓
South Carolina State @ Western Kentucky +14.5 146.5 88% 64–90 ✓
Utah Valley @ Boise State +11.6 130.5 82% 69–87 ✓
Merrimack @ Bradley +10.2 133.4 80% 41–83 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Idaho State +5.6 135.3 76% 68–66 ✗
Kennesaw State @ VCU +7.8 136.0 78% 61–64 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Colorado State +18.7 134.1 89% 45–88 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charlotte +15.1 126.1 86% 42–69 ✓
Clemson @ California -3.9 129.9 31% 67–59 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Bowling Green +1.0 150.9 57% 69–57 ✗
Columbia @ Providence +15.3 148.8 87% 64–78 ✓
Bryant @ Syracuse +1.6 155.4 50% 73–72 ✗
North Alabama @ Georgia Tech +10.2 140.1 80% 61–80 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Middle Tennessee -2.2 136.3 47% 63–75 ✗
Colgate @ Pennsylvania +3.6 151.1 66% 69–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ Evansville +0.4 130.4 56% 53–54 ✓
UC Davis @ Milwaukee -4.6 146.8 33% 85–87 ✗
Delaware State @ Liberty +12.9 136.2 86% 53–80 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Vermont -1.1 133.6 43% 68–66 ✓
Louisiana @ Drake +8.0 150.0 78% 64–76 ✓
Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas +4.4 143.9 62% 74–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.