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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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64–25 on winners spread MAE 9.3 89 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Dayton +8.6 134.2 78% 86–91 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +13.3 152.1 89% 58–79 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) -1.5 144.6 44% 72–59 ✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green +4.5 145.1 66% 70–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo -1.7 150.0 44% 78–68 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +7.9 131.5 76% 62–65 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +15.0 144.8 91% 66–98 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +3.4 139.9 62% 57–82 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +4.1 148.3 64% 60–61 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +4.0 158.2 64% 62–77 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +6.0 158.5 71% 71–86 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego -2.4 153.4 41% 52–57 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulane +4.9 160.0 67% 75–85 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +9.7 141.9 81% 47–74 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +4.6 139.2 66% 79–77 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin -6.4 152.3 28% 84–78 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland -7.8 147.5 24% 70–78 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +20.4 175.5 97% 88–92 ✓
Campbell @ Monmouth +6.2 143.3 71% 67–90 ✓
Le Moyne @ Merrimack +8.4 135.9 78% 51–61 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +9.7 156.6 81% 57–70 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +4.2 154.6 65% 80–79 ✗
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic +8.4 164.6 78% 84–92 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +18.5 153.2 95% 78–86 ✓
Brown @ Yale +13.2 140.1 88% 84–81 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +15.0 148.2 91% 80–85 ✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure +13.5 155.4 89% 73–65 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham +5.4 151.6 69% 58–50 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's +4.4 140.6 66% 71–89 ✓
Siena @ Iona +17.0 135.2 94% 54–68 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +5.5 153.1 69% 79–82 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State -7.2 136.9 26% 58–65 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +6.5 124.3 72% 66–56 ✗
Maine @ Bryant +5.2 138.9 68% 58–84 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +2.5 150.2 59% 72–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +3.9 143.6 64% 80–94 ✓
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +13.3 145.1 89% 56–92 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +0.7 142.6 52% 86–60 ✗
George Washington @ Duquesne +11.3 151.1 85% 65–67 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +3.4 136.7 62% 89–74 ✗
Niagara @ Marist +6.1 132.7 71% 62–63 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia -4.6 162.3 34% 98–76 ✓
Creighton @ Villanova -1.1 140.6 46% 69–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +4.9 131.8 67% 93–89 ✗
William & Mary @ Towson +9.4 129.6 80% 56–67 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +3.5 136.4 63% 73–62 ✗
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +10.4 131.7 83% 76–82 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason +0.9 132.0 53% 46–64 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa -5.3 146.1 32% 70–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Vermont +12.6 146.6 87% 72–75 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +5.5 148.0 69% 64–77 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +11.8 164.7 86% 89–94 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -0.8 153.7 47% 62–89 ✗
Utah Tech @ Stephen F. Austin +10.5 146.8 83% 71–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +15.8 128.8 93% 70–84 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +5.0 133.0 68% 73–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State +7.8 153.9 76% 72–94 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +19.9 135.7 96% 67–68 ✓
Kansas @ Houston +11.3 133.4 85% 46–76 ✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee +9.5 165.1 81% 85–81 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +7.3 163.4 75% 95–104 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +3.1 153.9 61% 75–83 ✓
Charlotte @ East Carolina -1.4 127.4 45% 82–72 ✓
La Salle @ Loyola Chicago +11.5 143.5 85% 54–64 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -12.9 133.7 12% 82–73 ✓
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's +0.2 149.8 51% 96–92 ✗
Canisius @ Manhattan -3.7 142.7 37% 73–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -0.6 144.8 48% 67–66 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian +0.5 136.8 52% 74–67 ✗
Florida International @ New Mexico State +2.2 146.2 58% 70–77 ✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt -12.3 155.2 13% 78–79 ✗
Marquette @ Xavier -3.4 153.3 38% 86–80 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon State -8.6 148.2 22% 73–57 ✓
UCF @ TCU +6.7 145.0 73% 79–77 ✗
Grambling @ Alabama State +2.7 126.2 60% 84–87 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -4.9 140.2 33% 56–66 ✗
Seattle U @ Tarleton State +1.7 139.0 56% 66–69 ✓
Boston College @ Louisville -5.3 154.2 32% 67–61 ✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech -1.6 152.2 44% 68–78 ✗
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +2.2 146.2 58% 65–75 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +1.3 150.5 55% 67–72 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +5.4 140.8 69% 74–68 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +2.7 150.7 60% 57–75 ✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest +2.6 152.0 59% 76–81 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +8.5 138.7 78% 78–93 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -7.2 143.6 26% 105–83 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +3.4 148.9 62% 88–78 ✗
North Carolina @ Duke +4.4 152.5 65% 84–79 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +17.4 150.0 94% 78–92 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.