What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
37–20 on winners spread MAE 9.5 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Holy Cross @ Colgate +18.6 138.0 95% 64–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette -0.3 136.7 49% 76–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +5.0 130.0 68% 61–70 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +3.8 131.7 64% 80–57 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland +4.6 151.9 66% 65–75 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +8.8 151.6 79% 82–70 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +1.7 134.7 56% 59–53 ✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson +6.9 141.1 73% 87–88 ✓
UAB @ Temple -0.9 150.2 47% 100–72 ✓
Rutgers @ Wisconsin +9.7 131.3 81% 66–78 ✓
Niagara @ Siena -8.3 139.7 22% 66–59 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac +3.8 136.0 63% 64–73 ✓
Iona @ Manhattan -8.4 144.6 22% 60–77 ✗
Canisius @ Fairfield +8.1 146.7 77% 62–74 ✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +1.4 133.4 55% 59–61 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +7.0 145.2 74% 68–79 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State +8.3 139.3 78% 60–78 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley -1.7 152.7 44% 79–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Stephen F. Austin +6.9 152.8 74% 60–87 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +6.5 165.9 72% 99–97 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +3.9 150.8 64% 71–77 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.1 133.9 35% 59–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider +1.1 132.6 54% 56–61 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State +5.5 135.5 69% 63–60 ✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +5.6 140.2 70% 57–71 ✓
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -3.4 142.3 38% 59–64 ✗
Marshall @ Georgia State +1.9 149.6 57% 86–74 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +19.3 136.7 96% 67–74 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State -0.4 131.6 48% 65–57 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M -0.9 134.7 47% 74–73 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +8.6 161.0 78% 84–89 ✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana +2.3 140.0 58% 80–54 ✗
Washington @ Washington State +6.0 152.3 71% 74–68 ✗
Milwaukee @ Green Bay +3.9 147.1 64% 95–84 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon -0.5 152.6 48% 79–75 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +4.5 148.5 66% 58–77 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +8.9 144.7 79% 76–83 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech +10.1 136.7 82% 72–66 ✗
Arizona @ UCLA -13.6 146.3 11% 88–65 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois +5.0 136.7 67% 84–82 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +8.5 134.8 78% 63–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State +4.4 157.0 65% 76–74 ✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +8.6 139.3 78% 70–63 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Riverside +2.8 134.0 60% 74–84 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +24.1 135.4 99% 68–82 ✓
California @ Stanford +3.9 156.4 64% 58–80 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +6.5 144.5 72% 73–81 ✓
Utah @ Oregon State -8.9 146.1 21% 85–92 ✗
Radford @ High Point +10.1 154.1 82% 63–77 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +11.1 154.8 84% 59–75 ✓
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T -3.3 142.8 38% 79–62 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +1.0 146.1 54% 69–56 ✗
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +0.8 152.6 53% 62–67 ✓
Hampton @ Elon +3.9 152.2 64% 56–55 ✗
The Citadel @ Mercer +1.3 135.5 55% 76–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +10.5 142.3 83% 55–60 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -8.6 138.1 22% 84–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.