The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–18 on winners spread MAE 9.4 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +6.7 151.7 73% 63–79 ✓
Utah @ Oregon +0.0 152.6 50% 65–66 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State +1.2 143.8 54% 86–47 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +18.4 136.0 95% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +0.5 128.1 52% 72–64 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.1 158.9 36% 68–59 ✓
NC State @ Pittsburgh +7.3 145.3 75% 73–81 ✓
UConn @ Providence -8.4 140.2 22% 74–60 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock -4.1 144.4 36% 69–55 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +8.5 122.3 78% 57–72 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -6.5 129.3 28% 71–55 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -6.7 136.0 27% 68–47 ✓
New Mexico @ Utah State +2.0 160.2 57% 85–87 ✓
Marshall @ James Madison +13.5 154.3 89% 64–81 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina +2.6 152.1 59% 79–76 ✗
DePaul @ Seton Hall +20.9 143.1 97% 62–86 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +8.4 149.6 78% 80–84 ✓
Hampton @ Delaware +12.9 145.4 88% 50–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ BYU +16.5 150.3 93% 71–85 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -8.2 136.8 23% 81–71 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +5.1 142.2 68% 66–90 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +2.2 160.3 58% 61–60 ✗
Arizona @ USC -13.7 164.7 11% 65–78 ✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara +9.0 150.8 79% 79–104 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -4.6 141.1 34% 68–60 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +5.4 144.5 69% 81–64 ✗
UNLV @ Nevada +6.9 139.1 73% 65–75 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +4.4 128.3 66% 47–59 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +6.3 133.7 72% 57–74 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +17.1 148.4 94% 51–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.8 156.0 70% 59–83 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +0.8 146.2 53% 85–59 ✗
Nebraska @ Michigan -5.4 152.5 31% 85–70 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +11.1 151.0 84% 70–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +10.5 130.4 83% 65–68 ✓
Drake @ Indiana State +1.9 162.1 57% 84–80 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson +3.6 147.4 63% 91–94 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers -0.5 130.8 48% 73–51 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +2.6 134.3 59% 66–56 ✗
Temple @ UTSA +1.6 159.0 56% 84–82 ✗
SMU @ UAB -4.0 150.8 36% 70–74 ✗
Lehigh @ Boston University +0.7 140.6 53% 84–79 ✗
Furman @ Samford +5.5 167.3 69% 77–84 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana -5.8 138.3 30% 64–65 ✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel +5.0 139.6 67% 91–88 ✗
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +6.0 146.3 71% 78–66 ✗
Arkansas State @ App State +5.6 150.9 69% 67–65 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +2.9 142.6 60% 85–84 ✗
Illinois @ Iowa -2.8 176.0 40% 73–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +6.7 138.4 73% 58–68 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +11.3 146.4 85% 74–69 ✗
Maryland @ Penn State +0.3 139.0 51% 69–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.