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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.7
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Texas A&M
@
Northwestern State
|
+0.4 | 142.4 | 52% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Texas State
@
James Madison
|
+11.3 | 143.1 | 85% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Hofstra
|
+3.1 | 140.0 | 61% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
North Dakota
|
+0.6 | 147.0 | 52% | 73–72 | ✗ |
Idaho State
@
Northern Colorado
|
+3.2 | 155.0 | 61% | 83–76 | ✗ |
Towson
@
Charleston
|
+3.3 | 140.3 | 62% | 56–61 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Lamar
|
+11.0 | 158.7 | 84% | 57–71 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Oakland
|
+4.1 | 149.7 | 64% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
James Madison
|
+7.0 | 160.4 | 74% | 71–91 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Samford
|
+8.1 | 153.9 | 77% | 69–76 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
South Dakota State
|
-0.2 | 139.7 | 49% | 49–59 | ✗ |
Montana State
@
Weber State
|
+5.9 | 142.7 | 70% | 91–82 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.