They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–8 on winners spread MAE 6.7 22 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +6.9 144.1 73% 51–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +5.4 145.2 69% 63–59 ✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +10.8 135.6 84% 65–79 ✓
Denver @ Omaha +0.3 164.9 51% 66–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +2.1 157.5 57% 82–75 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +5.5 145.8 69% 81–87 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +6.4 149.8 72% 77–89 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -5.3 137.3 31% 63–71 ✗
Oklahoma State @ UCF +5.5 138.2 69% 62–77 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +0.1 131.9 50% 80–84 ✓
George Washington @ La Salle -0.4 159.2 49% 60–61 ✗
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +11.5 145.1 85% 85–90 ✓
Louisville @ NC State +10.0 152.6 82% 85–94 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +11.7 137.1 86% 59–66 ✓
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island -0.6 161.5 48% 74–71 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's +2.1 144.7 58% 77–61 ✗
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +5.7 156.5 70% 70–77 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +14.3 145.1 90% 57–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston +6.8 157.8 73% 79–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland +6.3 159.0 72% 76–83 ✓
Wagner @ Merrimack +8.2 118.6 77% 54–47 ✗
Miami @ Boston College -0.8 151.5 47% 65–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.