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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–8 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sacramento State
@
Montana State
|
+5.5 | 135.7 | 69% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Iona
|
+9.7 | 143.9 | 81% | 57–60 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Saint Mary's
|
+0.2 | 140.2 | 51% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+3.6 | 141.5 | 63% | 81–73 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
Jacksonville State
|
+5.1 | 139.9 | 68% | 76–67 | ✗ |
Denver
@
South Dakota State
|
+7.4 | 164.2 | 75% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Montana
|
+5.5 | 143.4 | 69% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Niagara
|
+11.4 | 138.0 | 85% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
George Mason
|
+0.5 | 140.2 | 52% | 64–57 | ✗ |
Florida State
@
Virginia Tech
|
+3.5 | 152.7 | 62% | 86–76 | ✗ |
UCF
@
BYU
|
+7.5 | 145.3 | 75% | 73–87 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Wichita State
|
+4.5 | 142.9 | 66% | 81–88 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
VCU
|
+8.3 | 138.4 | 77% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Wyoming
|
+4.5 | 143.0 | 66% | 77–73 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Wake Forest
|
+9.8 | 136.7 | 81% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
+3.9 | 149.8 | 64% | 75–63 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+2.8 | 159.9 | 60% | 80–74 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
TCU
|
+0.4 | 151.4 | 51% | 70–77 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Temple
|
+2.0 | 159.6 | 57% | 61–64 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Butler
|
-0.7 | 155.1 | 48% | 76–72 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Colorado State
|
+15.4 | 141.8 | 92% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
McNeese
|
+16.0 | 142.3 | 93% | 76–92 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+8.4 | 144.2 | 78% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
UCLA
|
+4.1 | 127.5 | 65% | 57–67 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+14.1 | 129.8 | 90% | 51–75 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Maryland
|
+3.2 | 121.6 | 61% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Quinnipiac
|
+4.2 | 150.1 | 65% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Sam Houston
|
+7.7 | 149.8 | 76% | 59–78 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Providence
|
+11.0 | 145.9 | 84% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Colgate
|
+9.5 | 141.8 | 81% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
New Mexico
|
+18.0 | 148.7 | 95% | 56–82 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+6.4 | 147.9 | 72% | 85–90 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+4.7 | 143.9 | 66% | 78–74 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Syracuse
|
-1.0 | 154.8 | 46% | 83–65 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
+7.6 | 148.8 | 76% | 73–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.