And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–16 on winners spread MAE 9.9 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan @ Penn State +4.4 156.8 66% 57–66 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +10.5 136.0 83% 81–87 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield +2.7 148.0 60% 63–68 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +21.4 138.1 97% 57–58 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +1.3 134.5 55% 78–83 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +1.5 127.0 55% 74–63 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +12.7 130.5 88% 70–67 ✗
Stanford @ California -1.6 155.4 44% 87–76 ✓
Cincinnati @ Kansas +2.7 144.0 60% 72–52 ✗
Alabama State @ Grambling +0.4 129.2 51% 50–56 ✓
Missouri @ Georgia +4.5 146.6 66% 59–64 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +6.6 149.5 72% 76–55 ✗
Montana State @ Montana +5.2 149.4 68% 85–70 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +1.6 151.5 56% 87–84 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +3.6 144.9 63% 57–60 ✓
Arizona State @ Utah +9.3 146.3 80% 57–90 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +3.2 158.7 61% 67–59 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +1.2 142.3 54% 66–61 ✗
Xavier @ UConn +11.5 149.0 85% 60–87 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina +11.5 156.1 85% 67–92 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan State +6.9 137.9 73% 67–77 ✓
BYU @ Texas Tech -4.3 151.5 35% 67–81 ✗
Tulsa @ East Carolina -0.0 141.4 50% 79–84 ✗
Mississippi State @ LSU -5.1 146.6 32% 70–60 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -2.7 137.7 40% 66–56 ✓
VCU @ Massachusetts +0.1 142.7 50% 73–59 ✗
Maryland @ Wisconsin +3.9 134.0 64% 56–87 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall -0.8 145.4 47% 91–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +7.2 155.4 74% 71–65 ✗
Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh -1.1 147.2 46% 69–81 ✗
USC @ Arizona +15.3 163.4 92% 49–70 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +15.3 146.4 92% 75–87 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +1.6 142.1 56% 62–73 ✓
TCU @ Houston +12.1 139.0 86% 45–60 ✓
Arkansas @ South Carolina +5.8 145.9 70% 66–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron +7.9 134.5 76% 63–75 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Loyola Chicago -0.4 138.8 49% 75–74 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +3.2 131.5 61% 66–68 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -2.9 137.3 40% 74–71 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +6.9 158.4 74% 65–78 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa -0.4 158.6 48% 90–78 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +3.0 132.0 61% 59–65 ✓
UTEP @ Liberty +4.5 138.0 66% 66–57 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ohio +8.5 149.9 78% 55–82 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +9.3 136.0 80% 57–76 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +8.1 144.5 77% 78–73 ✗
NC State @ Duke +10.2 151.2 82% 74–69 ✗
Tulane @ North Texas +5.1 146.1 68% 71–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +3.9 142.3 64% 71–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.