Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -225 MISS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -3.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -3.9 (+5.1) | 141.3 (+9.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -4.2 (+4.8) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -3.2 (+5.8) | 139.5 (+11.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -3.1 (+5.9) | 140.4 (+10.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TA&M 80 – 77 MISS |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TA&M 63 – 62 MISS |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TA&M 86 – 60 MISS |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MISS 71 – 68 TA&M |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TA&M 69 – 61 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#52) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#54) | 1.74 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#39) | 2.01 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#67) | 0.563 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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